Where Will Your Equity Profile Be in a Year?
The market is disengaged from financial fundamentals and all reality. Remember December 2018
when the market fell 20% (over three months) over a “potential” China trade war? And remember the
big rally in 2019 – and you’re saying to yourself “If only I had bought back then!” Surprise! You’re
getting a second chance!
In the next 3 to 6 months there will most likely be a vaccine out. An Israeli company applied for a
U.S. patent Tuesday for their vaccine – which they think will be available in 9 to 10 weeks. Taiwan,
Germany, China are all reporting success toward a vaccine. We are no virologists! Just reporting on
what we're seeing. But we're guessing that in 12 months we will be looking back at March 2020 and
saying, “Remember that selloff… wasn’t that just silly!” Please note – this market will not wait until
the first vaccine shot is administered before it rallies back. It will rally back on the RUMOR of the
vaccine! Did you know the amount of cases in China is slowing down? Power usage is starting to go
back up and some people are going back to work. We repeat – we are not virologists. But there are
many cases of people who have recovered and are fine. Some who didn’t even know they had it!
Like most bad flu cases, it’s deadly for the aged. The average age for the U.S. fatality is close to 80.
So, if you are under 60…
Upon listening to a WebEx, they were recently talking to a fund manager about the amount of
companies researching a coronavirus vaccine. He named only several. When asked why aren’t
more companies involved, he said, and we paraphrase, “There’s not enough profit in it because
there won’t be that large of a demand for it. Like SARS, Swine Flu, etc., they tend to burn
themselves out. Many of the companies who worked on past vaccines, lost money.” They rationalize
that we are leaving “flu season” and it will just “go away.” That’s what viruses do. Did we mention we
are not virologists?
So the coronavirus dies out (and you can now buy toilet paper at Costco). Now what? Interest rates
have gone to zero. People are back at work. Corporate profits are back and growing. Do you really
think the stock market will not rebound? In our age of political correctness, instant gratification and
the attention span of a goldfish, people cannot say what’s on their mind.
Our mission is to make clients’ money. We are long-term investors. The market has gone from a
slightly over bought area (mentioned here earlier this year) to a moderately heavy oversold area.
Probably the lowest valuation in 7 to 8 years. Many other areas also (Schiller’s P/E, dividend yield,
price-to-book, earnings yield, etc.).
Take a deep breath. It will be over soon.
Photo by Moose Photos from Pexels